Friday, January 6, 2017

Newly Unemployed Man Relieved by Econ. Study Showing Min. Wage Hikes Are Good for Workers

 After getting laid off and being unemployed for five full months, Kwame Jackson was ready to hear some good news.*

It came this week, when he heard about a new study on the minimum wage prepared by a leading Ivy League-trained economist, Dr. Bertrand Hopkins. The study was consistent with the latest groundbreaking research on the subject, and added to a growing body of evidence that minimum wage increases are in fact good for workers--contrary to what the libertarian purists at the Heritage Foundation might have you believe.

Monday, January 2, 2017

Obama’s Legacy: Symbolism Over Substance

President Obama’s decision not to veto the recent UN resolution on Israeli settlements generated significant outrage on both sides of the aisle. Lost in the furor, however, was the simple fact that the resolution did not actually do anything. It was just another symbolic gesture without substance.
In this way, it was also the perfect capstone for Obama’s presidency. When it came to the controversial issues where Obama’s personal position appeared to be aligned with peace and civil liberties, he was unwilling to take a stand. He saved his political capital to push through destructive policies and took symbolic half-measures on the few issues where he could have made a meaningful positive difference.
As Obama’s tenure draws to a close, this must be viewed as a key part of his legacy. In nearly every case where political courage was required, President Obama consistently chose symbolic actions over substantive ones. It’s as if he wanted to be on the right side of history–just not enough to do anything about it.
This pattern is evident across many different issues. We’ll consider a few of the most significant ones to make the case:
  • Refugee crisis
  • Marijuana prohibition
  • Israeli-Palestinian conflict
Refugee Crisis
As the Republican primary season heated up in 2015, there was an intense competition to see which candidate could take the most extreme position on refugees from the Greater Middle East (and Muslims generally). Donald Trump emerged as the champion of this unfortunate contest when he suggested banning admission of all Muslims to the US. But Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush were close on his heels by contemplating religious tests for Syrian and Iraqi refugees–reject them if they’re Muslim, accept them if they’re Christian.
Because the bar was set this low, it was easy for Obama to take a more reasonable position, and he did. The Obama Administration successfully pushed to increase the number of refugees that would be accepted. Obama also worked to capitalize on the issue politically, strongly denouncing the Republican rhetoric as contrary to American values and arguing that we can’t “have religious tests to our compassion.
Unfortunately, Obama’s actions on refugees were decidedly insufficient. The US accepted roughly 70,000 refugees in FY 2015, and the plan was to increase this total to 100,000 annually by FY 2017. In percentage terms, it’s impressive–a 43% increase over two years. But in terms of the overall scope of the refugee crisis–which US foreign policy precipitated–these numbers were wholly inadequate.
Using the most recent figures available from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) at the end of 2015, the total population of concern, which includes refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs), was 63.9 million. If we restrict our focus to seven countries where US intervention played a significant role in bringing about the present crisis, the total is still an incredible 28.6 million as shown in the table below:
OriginTotal population of concern
Afghanistan4,434,853
Iraq4,915,827
Libya447,018
Pakistan2,184,670
Somalia2,350,997
Syrian Arab Rep.11,690,327
Yemen2,558,016
Total28,581,708
*Source: Annex Table 2 from the UNHCR Global Trends 2015 report.
These numbers put the US pledge of taking 100,000 refugees into perspective. Compared to the total number of people that US foreign policy has helped put at risk, the US pledge amounts to 0.35% of the need–in other words, a rounding error.
The US policy on refugees is actually even more useless than this paltry figure would suggest, however. This is because the vetting process for refugees takes an estimated 18 to 24 months. People in desperate situations can scarcely afford to wait that long.
Based on this, it’s clear that President Obama’s actions on this issue were always meant to be a symbolic gesture. He gave a speech and implemented a policy that appeared meaningful on the surface–if only because Republicans’ reaction exaggerated its effects for political gain. But in fact, it did little or nothing to address the underlying problem.
More serious (and politically feasible) proposals might have included significant increases in aid directly to the countries hosting refugees right now or perhaps stopping US intervention in the region. Unfortunately, these policies were not adopted.
Marijuana Prohibition
In a recent interview with Rolling Stone, President Obama expressed his view that marijuana should be regulated as a “public-health issue,” rather than as a criminal issue. While not quite the libertarian ideal, this would represent major progress on the status quo regarding marijuana because it would mean eliminating a huge number of victimless crimes.
In addition to expressing this view, President Obama has also made the controversial move of offering numerous pardons and sentence commutations–primarily to nonviolent drug offenders. As with the refugee situation, the numbers involved here (1,324 at last count) are minute relative to the massive population of such offenders that could be helped.
This is better than nothing, but it falls far short of the progress Obama could have made on this issue if he’d made it a priority. In the interview cited above, Obama attempted to blame his inaction on a lack of public support for reform on marijuana laws. But as Reasonpoints out, this just isn’t true. Recent opinion polls show a significant majority of Americans (70%) support some form of legalization for medical marijuana, and a somewhat smaller majority (60%) supports outright legalization. Granted, it’s unlikely these same majorities would exist in the House of Representatives or the Senate–otherwise such legislation could have already been implemented. But what these polls show is that, if Obama wanted to make a push on this issue, he could have prevailed.
If Obama was unwilling to have a public fight with an obstructionist Congress, he could have also improved matters directly by rescheduling marijuana. The rescheduling process is somewhat convoluted, but it can be done by the Executive Branch without any input from Congress. If successful, this would have moved marijuana from a Schedule I substance with no recognized legitimate usage to a lower level, such as those used for prescription drugs. The end result would be to effectively legalize marijuana for medicinal purposes, an enormous step in the right direction.
But Obama was unwilling to take this administrative action, even though he showed no reluctance exercising executive power elsewhere. Either due to a lack of courage or a lack of interest, Obama chose token actions and rhetoric over meaningful reform.
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Finally, there’s the most recent example at the UN. To his credit, Obama did allow the UN resolution to pass without a US veto. Secretary of State John Kerry’s follow-up speech to defend this action was a refreshingly blunt and honest description of the conflict, especially by US standards.
On balance, these are positive developments. But they come so late in Obama’s term that they are also basically meaningless. The resolution itself had no actual effects, and there is almost zero chance that President-elect Trump will follow in Obama’s footsteps. Meanwhile, the substance of the US’s policy towards Israel remains the same as it has been. The US still gives Israel disproportionate amounts of foreign aid, and under Obama, it blocked every UN action that Israel objected to–except for the toothless resolution in question.
The problem here is that nothing of substance changed in the last eight years. The UN resolution and the speech given by Kerry would have been every bit as applicable at the start of Obama’s presidency as they are today. Over at Mondoweiss, Philip Weiss sums up this frustration very effectively:
The speech repeated warnings that President George H.W. Bush and his secretary of state made to the Israelis 25 years ago, when the illegal Jewish settlement project was a mere stripling of 25. And though the UN Security Council resolution of last week condemning settlements is a victory for Palestinians, and may well precipitate a crisis inside Israeli politics, it is not as if Obama succeeded in his 8-year quest to make a Palestinian state. No, he and Kerry failed.
Obama waited eight years to break with the US status quo on Israel-Palestine. And when he finally got around to it, he no longer had any real power to make a difference.
Conclusion
President Obama will soon leave office with few accomplishments worth bragging about. Most of his campaign promises went unfulfilled, he routinely abused and expanded executive power, and the national debt is higher than ever, and the US is still involved in multiple unwinnable wars–just as it was at the start of his presidency.
Of course, most of the above could be said about previous US presidents as well.
The real disappointment about President Obama is his failure to take meaningful action on the few issues where his private position appeared reasonably sound. When he was elected, there was at least some cause for optimism that the constitutional law scholar would make a positive difference on some issues. But in the end, he chose to settle for symbolism over substance in order to save his political capital for something worse.

Friday, December 23, 2016

Senator: 'Government Should Not Legislate Morality Unless It's My Morality'

 Senator Chuck Jones (R-AL*) recently became a co-sponsor of a bill that would defund Planned Parenthood "once and for all" in the words of the Senator.

Monday, December 19, 2016

Rex Tillerson and Russia: Conflict or Confluence of Interest?

Politics breeds bad incentives.
While not everyone may agree with that statement, we all routinely witness its unhappy results. Economic policies are passed that benefit a small minority of business interests while raising prices for all consumers. Government officials are often allowed to break even the most serious laws with impunity. And on the most important issue of war and peace, politicians have started wars on false pretenses, even after being elected on an antiwar platform.
The precise reasons for decisions like these will vary–maybe a prominent donor is pushing for it, maybe a politician wants to save their political capital for a higher priority, or maybe a president has a personal affinity for a foreign country and wants to take their side accordingly. Whatever the particulars, the general theme is that many decisions in government are made based on the personal interests of individual actors, not the interests of the American people at large.
This reality offers important context for assessing the president-elect’s pick for Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson.
Tillerson is the outgoing CEO of the ExxonMobil Corporation, which has considerable investments in Russia. Exxon stands to benefit greatly if the economic sanctions against Russia are lifted, and Tillerson himself has spoken against sanctions in the past. Tillerson was also personally involved in many of Exxon’s Russian investments, and he was even awarded the Order of Friendship by the Russian Federation.
All of this would appear to make Tillerson a logical choice for Trump, who has often signaled an interest in improving US-Russian relations. However, given the deeply anti-Russian climate in the US right now, critics have suggested Tillerson’s Russia ties represent an intolerable conflict of interest. To the more conspiratorial types, Tillerson’s selection offers yet further confirmation that Donald Trump was indeed Putin’s “Puppet.”
I will leave it to other pieces to debate whether Trump truly is a Moscovian marionette. In its place, let’s consider the claim that Tillerson’s conflicts of interest would hinder his ability to serve as an effective Secretary of State. For this purpose, we will take as given both that Tillerson has warm relations with the Russian government and has an interest in seeing economic sanctions lifted.*
In political discussions, it is often taken for granted that government–and by extension, all people in it–exists to serve the public interest. But this is not a realistic view, and, as discussed above, it is not borne out by experience. If people are deemed to be greedy and self-interested when they act in the private sector, we cannot assume they undergo a magical transformation into selfless individuals when they transfer into government employee. Of course, this does not mean every politician or official will put their own interests ahead of the public’s in all cases or in any case. No doubt there will even be some courageous individuals who seem to consistently put the public’s interests ahead of their own ambitions. But it is not wise to rely on this behavior for good policy. We must account for the personal interests and incentives as well.
Since we cannot eradicate (or assume away) the personal interest that government actors have, the phrase “conflict of interest” needs to be redefined in order to be useful. Our chief concern is not that government actors have personal interests–this is inevitable. Instead, what we must care about is where these personal interests are at odds with the public’s interest, the interest of the American people. That is what we must mean by a “conflict of interest.” If the personal interests of the politician, the bureaucrat, or even a private corporation are in line with the interests of the American people, so much the better. This is what we might call a “confluence of interest” instead.
Different people will disagree on what truly is in the American people’s best interest when it comes to foreign policy. But it should be uncontroversial to suggest that peace is preferable to war, and that nuclear war is the worst possible outcome for the American people and everyone else. These must be the top priorities with respect to the US-Russian relationship. Other considerations–such as the proper footprint for the NATO alliance and whether a brutal secular or Sunni government ought to be in charge in Syria–must take a backseat if they are to be pursued at all.
With these priorities outlined, Rex Tillerson’s background and personal interests seem to overlap considerably with the interests of the American people. Whatever else is true, his nomination alone clearly sends a signal that Trump is intent on trying to improve the US-Russian relationship. Hopefully, this will include a lifting economic sanctions–which would do much to move the US and Russia back from the brink of confrontation. Sanctions relief would also directly improve the lives of ordinary Russians and Europeans (and Americans to a lesser extent) as a result of increased trade and specialization.
And yes, such a move would also probably increase the bottom line for Exxon.
If we take a completely cynical view, we might assume that Tillerson would push for sanctions relief and warmer relations solely for the purpose of helping out Exxon.** Even if that occurred, however, the fact remains that the American people (and others) would be collateral beneficiaries of the policy. Why such a policy gets implemented is not material; that it gets implemented is. In this regard, there is a clear confluence of interest between the personal interests of Tillerson and the public interest of the American people. This is cause for cautious optimism.
But while this aspect of Tillerson appears to be an asset, it also comes with risks. It must be remembered that President-elect Trump has not outlined a noninterventionist foreign policy. Rather, he just intends to prioritize the destruction of ISIS and other terrorist groups over regime change. This is marginally less absurd than the present policy of being on both sides of multiple conflicts in the Middle East, but it is a far cry from the noninterventionist ideal. It also creates the possibility of the US and Russia outright allying to achieve this end. This would not be a welcome development.
The goal should be peace with Russia, not a military alliance. Not only would such an alliance be futile in terms of the 15-year-long “War on Terror,” it would also likely increase the potential for blowback against the American people. Just as the US alliance with Israel helped make Americans a target for violence, an alliance with Russia cause the US to unwittingly inherit its stateless enemies as well. Depending on how warm Tillerson’s relations are with Russia, he could help facilitate such an overcorrection. This could represent a risk down the road.
Compared to some of the other names that were in the running for Secretary of State, Tillerson represents a major improvement. (Of course, one of those terrible candidates, John Bolton, was selected as Deputy Secretary, so there’s still plenty of deeply concerning news to go around.)
Summary
It remains to be seen whether Tillerson will successfully get through the Senate confirmation process to become the next Secretary of State. No doubt, we will hear much more about his alleged conflict of interest with Russia after Trump is inaugurated. However, we must understand that all government officials face their own personal incentives and interests. What truly matters is not whether such interests exist, but whether they overlap with the interests of the American people.
This is why the Tillerson nomination is cause for some relief. We don’t know his position on everything. But at least on the most important foreign policy issue today–the relationship between the US and Russia–Tillerson’s personal interests seem to point in the same direction as the American people’s, in the direction of peace and commerce.
*It is entirely possible that Tillerson will severe all formal ties to ExxonMobil and sell his shares in the company in order to ease his confirmation as Secretary of State. Even if this were to occur, it seems reasonable to assume Tillerson would still retain some affinity for his lifelong employer and its interests.
**It should be clear that I am here referring to broad-based sanctions relief that frees up trade for all or many industries, rather than some kind of narrow exemption for Exxon. The latter policy would be deplorable mere crony capitalism and would not provide the same economic benefits to regular people, nor would it contribute as much to the state of the US-Russian relationship.

Friday, December 16, 2016

Ku Klux Klan Endorses Humanitarian Intervention: 'It gets results'

Birmingham, AL--At a press conference on Wednesday, the Grand Spellcaster of the Ku Klux Klan, William Gordon, strongly endorsed humanitarian intervention in Syria and "anywhere else."

Thursday, December 8, 2016

Man Claims Right to an American Job after Being Born Here

Huntington, IN--Speaking to reporters after President-elect Donald Trump's major announcement that Carrier would be keeping some additional jobs in the US, a local employee Ben Jackson was ecstatic that someone in power was finally "trying to protect American jobs".